Friday 11 October 2013
If I flip a coin, can you tell me if it’ll be heads or tails?
Or is it a mere matter of probability – the essence of the cosmos.
In reality, isn't it a matter of knowledge and processing
power? If you knew the exact angle, and with what force the coin was flipped
along with other variables such as air friction, with sufficient brain power
you in fact could tell me if it’ll land heads or tails. We explored in class
how this concept of probability affects games, gamers, and game developers.
First let’s look at the game everyone’s used to and knows - the game of Life. Life is a game of chance right; you never know what’s going to happen for sure. Even if you’re a genius and can process really well, you rarely have all the information on all the variables that’ll affect an outcome. As a result you can only assess to your abilities the chance for an occurrence. For simplicity sake, one can draw a parallel between life and a card game and say: “Life is a game; you must play with the cards you are being dealt, and make the best of them.” Even while coping with its randomness, people pray for a better fortune in life or hope for better luck tomorrow. They’re not only used to chance, but welcome it into their life. When extrapolating this behavior into gaming, it’s easy to see why chance plays an important part in a game’s shelf life.
First let’s look at the game everyone’s used to and knows - the game of Life. Life is a game of chance right; you never know what’s going to happen for sure. Even if you’re a genius and can process really well, you rarely have all the information on all the variables that’ll affect an outcome. As a result you can only assess to your abilities the chance for an occurrence. For simplicity sake, one can draw a parallel between life and a card game and say: “Life is a game; you must play with the cards you are being dealt, and make the best of them.” Even while coping with its randomness, people pray for a better fortune in life or hope for better luck tomorrow. They’re not only used to chance, but welcome it into their life. When extrapolating this behavior into gaming, it’s easy to see why chance plays an important part in a game’s shelf life.
It is a bit clearer now why as discussed in class, people
are intrigued by randomness and are bored by repetitions. Frankly, beyond the
superficial facets that “chance in a game stops people from mastering it and
makes it less predictable” as well as “it gives newcomers the chance to win”,
there’s a much deeper and more appealing strategic aspect that chance adds to
games in my opinion.
In Mathematical Psychology, Risk, is the probability of an occurrence, times its cost. For example, an elevator ride is risky, but only mildly because although the cost may be your leg, the chance of the ropes and the supportive ropes ripping is so low that the product of the cost and probability yields low risk. So in games, this element of chance allows for a deeper understanding of what is happening. It sets the intelligent and experienced players apart through intuition and calculation. This strongly ties in to the coin flip example: the experience and intuition replaces knowledge, and our intelligence replaces processing power, and the two elements coalesce into a better player.
In Mathematical Psychology, Risk, is the probability of an occurrence, times its cost. For example, an elevator ride is risky, but only mildly because although the cost may be your leg, the chance of the ropes and the supportive ropes ripping is so low that the product of the cost and probability yields low risk. So in games, this element of chance allows for a deeper understanding of what is happening. It sets the intelligent and experienced players apart through intuition and calculation. This strongly ties in to the coin flip example: the experience and intuition replaces knowledge, and our intelligence replaces processing power, and the two elements coalesce into a better player.
Furthermore, it’s a fine line between pure randomness vs.
randomness between well-known possibilities. For example in League of Legends,
there are currently 116 released champions, each with 5 abilities (passive is
an ability for simplicity sake as well are secondaries). So there are 580
abilities to know in this game, but of course during a game one doesn't need to
be aware of all. When the game loads one can tell which the enemy champions are
and therefore the possible abilities, and furthermore one can eliminate more
possibilities for an ability depending on the game situation. This may sound
confusing but as a player attains experience, he or she can move from expecting
pure randomness as would a “fr00b”, to calculated, narrowed down randomness of
a l33t player. Sometimes however, even slight increase in chance changes the
entire game dynamic. Halo 4 implemented a new “weapon drop-down call upon killing
sprees” which changed its competitive scene greatly. Since what the call-down is
was unpredictable, and a team’s play style and positioning varied depending on
the arsenal of the enemy team, this caused much complaint and that element was
removed from competitive play. In regular play though, it’s easy to see how the
element of chance creates tension and excitement which is enjoyable for most
players.
Finally I’d like to explore which in my opinion is the most
important implementation of chance in a game: The AI.
As discussed in class, chances increases the permutation of
possible outcomes, but what exactly does this mean? Well, remember Mario where
the enemies would always scroll by in the same fashion? Technically you could
program a macro that presses a certain button sequence with certain time delays
that would finish you the level every time. The game became a matter of
remembering such patterns – quite monotonous compared to current standards.
Artificial Intelligence was very primitive for that game as it didn't incorporate
chances much. To possess replay value, a game must offer new player experience
each time it is played (one of the main reasons multiplayer is very popular). This
is why in my opinion future games will invest heavily into AI programming as
unpredictability adds flavor. Ultimately, the element of chance blurs preconceived
boundaries and limitations for strategy, and as a result elevates player experience and adds replay value.
